2009 Predictions

The Christmas trees have now (hopefully) all been packed away, everyone’s recovered from their post NYE HOs, and we’re all gearing up for a fascinating 2009.

Seek, CareerOne and MyCareer have all just popped around and drawn the tarots from the deck (not REALLY.  You guys have got to learn not to take everything I write literally:)) and here are the results of the session.  Here are, in other words, the Geoff Jennings predictions for the online recruitment market in 2009:

Seek will target the SME market

Seek has seen consistent revenue growth of over 30% for the past four years.  This is largely attributed to  growing job ad volumes, price increases and the Seek Learning revenue contribution. 2009 will be a very different story for the market leader and it will take a mighty effort to break even.  They might attempt this feat by:

- Ditching their focus on recruiters and targeting the SME’s (Small Medium Sized) businesses, especially those who currently advertise in print. This will enable them to tap into a new advertiser that will be much easier to grow the yield with because it is accustomed to paying hefty print prices.

- Push new products. Stand Out ads, Premium ads…obviously, this will also contribute to yield growth and it is a path that Seek has already begun to promenade.

- Grow the Learning business: this will supplement the losses of the Core business.

- Concentrate on ensuring that the international investments work contribute to the bottom line.

CareerOne will tread water.

No significant inroads were made by CareerOne in 2008.  I’m going to acknowledge that they moved ahead of MyCareer in traffic numbers, and this was a good effort…but that has more to do with my imbibing post-festive spirit and less to do with any sort of massive leap by the former.

In 2007 they sold against the promise of a new website for almost a year, leaving many advertisers scratching their heads.   They’re likely to do the same in 2009,  as a result of the new joint venture with Monster. We might see some action on the new look partnership offering by the end of 2009, but by then it will be too little too late for their bottom line.  Promises, promises…

MyCareer will change business models.

MyCareer will move from being a generalist job board (with the only variation on this being their failed attempt with Job Fox in the Headhunter plan).  They will continue their downsizing (hopefully with a little more aplomb than their last Melbourne attempt) and they will cash in on their quality audience by launching a range of fully-integrated EGN executive ads. across all their online news sites.  They could also acquire PageUp People, the Applicant Tracking System (ATS) provider that has an enviable relationship with the corporate market that MyCareer could benefit from.  This would also mean getting in before Seek does.

Aggregators

These pimps of the job space are here and have set-up shop on a street corner near you. Will they make any real impact on the job market? Probably not. They fall short in a few areas.  Firstly, they don’t really have an adequate revenue model and we don’t have enough users in Australia to warrant further investment. Secondly, Seek has ensured the demise of aggregators by not allowing its job inventory to be scrapped. Lastly, the user experience is not great because of the searchability of expired ads..

Referral sites

The new guard are here. It will take all of 2009/10 to establish their offering. But traditional job boards beware. 2Vouch, Hoojano and the like will have a large impact on how the market is shaped for the future and will be targeting the same SME market as you are.

Network Your Way Through Christmas

For the jobseeker and employers, Christmas is a quiet time. Thoughts of changes and restructures (and all those jazzy keywords that mean positions are available) are put on hold until post-festivities. job boards continue to exhibit their wares, of course, but activity tends to slow a little.

Sites like Hoojano and 2vouch will help provide more choice of 24/7 access for the recruitment industry into the future. In the meanwhile, however, there is always LinkMe.

Here’s my suggestion: subscribe to LinkMe over the break. While it is true that movement in the job market is put on ice for a bit, the new year brings with it a bunch of changes to workplaces that recruiters and jobseekers can take advantage of.  So now, more than usual, is the time for networking.  And the opportunities won’t arise from the mitigated job board activity. They’ll come from more passive means like networking sites.

2Vouch Goes Beta

I’ve discussed 2vouch on this Onrec blog already back in February Vouching For 2Vouch . Today they launched in Beta. Congratulations.

Social referral sites such as 2vouch and Hoojano(which launched some months back) will be a prominent aspect of how we recruit into the future. The idea is nothing new, as indicated by the old adage 2vouch has chosen to adopt as their motto, “It’s not what you know…” (initially they had a genie as part of their campaign. I wanna know where the genie’s gone:)). Being social creatures, we communicate with one another. Being creatures ruled by the ego, we like to be “in the loop”, and being creatures driven by economic concerns, we like to make money. 2vouch satisfies all the needs.

Recruiters pay referral fees to people who give them a lead on a placement. 2vouch is merely formalising this already-existing convention.

Online recruitment has placed some jobs on 2vouch, to give it a go. Stay tuned for how that’s tracking…I wish, I wish (picture me rubbing the magic lantern here) for several successful job placements….

Where’s the Genie??

Vouching For 2Vouch?

2Vouch coming soon.

This is a site based on profiteering from the popularity of internet-based social networking.It works like this: folks sign up and get sent ads for jobs. If they think that one of their friends fits the requirements, they recommend the friend and that person becomes a member as well. If the friend secures the position, the person “vouching” for them gets paid a fee, which can go directly to them or their favorite charity. The beta for the site is well prepared and the instructions are presented to would-be participants in a clear and cogent manner (except the voice-over syncing in the clip is a bit off and reminds one of a Chinese martial arts film). This is always a good start.

I’m a huge fan of this idea and have often pondered its implications at four in the morning when my head is full of cyberspace and the flashing of the computer screen that haunts my days begins to intrude into my night-time. Sites such as Facebook have demonstrated that the drive to be popular and fill one’s profile with a plethora of friends drives many an introvert into sudden extroversion.

I’m bugged by a few factors, though. And I’m prepared to risk appearing overly-critical and ponderous in order to get the low-down on what others think about my suspicions.

Firstly, any business that relies on friends or acquaintances making a profit from one another has an air of the Amway about it. Just the knowledge that there is more to my friend’s recommending me for a job than the simple pleasure they experience from me being happier or taking one more step up the ladder of success - they stand to make money from me. And whether this goes straight to their hip pocket or to that of their favorite charity, they are still gaining something more tangible from my taking the job offered than the joy of an alturistic act.

There are all sorts of personal and political dilemmas that can be foreseen here that may lead people to steer well clear of the site. What about the promotion of jobs from colleague to colleague within the same company? What about the guy who vouches for his mate for a position but the mate refuses to take the job, thereby doing the guy out of a buck. Personal strain…hello, here we come.

And haven’t the old Jobs.com.au kinda tried to do this anyway? Is this another attempt to cut out the recruiter that is going to fall on its face.Let me tell you up front - I hope I’m wrong.